Pitchers are always in demand, and the trade market is clarifying somewhat now that teams have played over 35 games.
Every year, pitchers are the hottest commodity at the trade deadline. All teams need more pitching, and they are willing to give up real prospects to improve their rotations and bullpens. Upgrading the lineup is easy to do since there is far less demand, but all contenders are interested in the same few arms available.
It is still relatively early in the season, so who is buying and selling in two months is not totally clear. But it is not super early in the season either, so we do have some idea which teams are headed in either direction. I will sort the notable names into tiers regarding how likely their teams are to sell, and which pitchers on those teams are likely to go elsewhere.
The first tier is obvious: talented pitchers on clear-cut sellers near the end of their team control. Then we will look at candidates on teams who may or may not sell at the deadline, and finally a rundown of some more speculative candidates.
Start the Bidding Now
The Miami Marlins already got their fire sale under way by trading 2B Luis Arraez, and it sure seems like they intend to trade away anyone on the roster for the right price. That starts with SPs Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers, who both have mixed results in the Majors. The two of them also have over tw0 years of team control left, so the Marlins don’t need to trade them. But they appear headed for a full rebuild and won’t get a bigger trade return than this summer.
The problem is teams might not know what they are getting in Luzardo and Rogers. The Lizard King has been a reliable #2 for a couple years, but he is off to an awful start in 2024. His ERA sits at 6.58, and his peripherals are headed in the wrong direction. Rogers, meanwhile, has been headed in the wrong direction for three years. After finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, he has been hurt or ineffective since then. Unlike with Arraez, PBO Peter Bendix will wait until July for his starters to improve their performance before pulling the trigger.
The Marlins aren’t the only mess in the league, though. The Chicago White Sox are just as bad, and they started a rebuild in the spring by dealing SP Dylan Cease. Most of their roster is downright awful, but adding Erick Fedde is paying off. After six forgettable seasons with the Washington Nationals, Fedde jumped to the KBO, redesigned his arsenal, and won the MVP award. He is keeping things up in his return to MLB with better numbers than he ever had with the Nats. Fedde is under contract for next season as well, so the ChiSox will receive an exciting return for their one bright spot.
Maybe, Maybe Not
Most people did not expect the Nationals to compete this year. Most still don’t expect them to compete this year, but the Nats are currently in the thick of the wild card race. If they keep this up, they will add at the deadline instead of subtracting. If they slip away, then SP Trevor Williams will surprisingly be their best trade chip. Williams had a 5.55 ERA last season and averages under 90 MPH, but he is suddenly pitching like an ace. The righty threw a sweeper 2% of the time in 2023 and now throws 17% of the time while shelving a poor curveball. Williams is due for some regression, but he is clearly better than the man we saw last summer.
Halfway across the country, the St. Louis Cardinals are losing their grip on reality. They expected to compete but instead look similar to the ’23 team that finished in last place. One of their few offseason additions has been a pleasant surprise, though. SP Lance Lynn was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year, but he is settling in with his original organization. He gave up a whopping 44 home runs last season, but his homer rate has come back down to Earth by de-emphasizing his four seamer and re-emphasizing his sinker and cutter. If/when the Cards are out of the race, Lynn will find a new team for the second consecutive deadline.
Additionally, the New York Mets signed SPs Luis Severino and Sean Manaea knowing they could possibly flip them midseason. Stay the course.
Longshots
These pitchers would need to pitch better to warrant a meaningful return, or they have so many years of team control left that contenders rarely meet the asking price. In the former category, the Colorado Rockies are out of contention but have few competitive pitchers. SPs Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber are getting results but still have concerningly low strikeout rates. SP Martin Perez could fetch a mid-level prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates, since his kitchen-sink approach continues to work. The Toronto Blue Jays would be loath to sell, but SP Yusei Kikuchi would become one of the best players available.
In the latter category, the Oakland A’s hold all the cards for once. Other teams have already contacted them about CP Mason Miller, and the price is understandably huge. Acquiring a rookie relief ace will require giving up more than just an elite prospect, which front offices are very hesitant to do. Maybe the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Yankees will splurge after hardly dipping into their farm systems in the past 12 months. Or maybe someone will trade for setup man RP Lucas Erceg instead.
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